“Will the economies in hard-hit areas like Asheville and Tampa ever fully recover from the hurricanes?” CNN.com posted on Thursday. “The amount of aid flowing in as well as the amount of insurance coverage by residents will help determine how fast those areas recover, said Adam Kamins, senior director and regional economist at Moody’s Analytics. Sometimes a rush of federal aid can even help an area boost jobs after a storm, he said. ‘Katrina is the classic example where you do not see that unfolding, where people left in very large numbers and federal aid was not as generous as it needed to be,’ Kamins said. People could similarly leave parts of Florida if home and flood insurance rates, which have gone up significantly in recent years, continue to jump post Helene and Milton, Kamins told CNN. That’ll make it harder for the areas to recover economically, but it won’t necessarily cause home prices to plunge because of the reduction in housing supply from the storm, he said. At the same time, parts of inland North Carolina, where many residents did not have flood insurance, are going to be more reliant on federal aid. That could limit their ability to rebuild. Especially in Asheville, where tourism has seen a big bump in recent years, Kamins said he’s concerned there could be many hotels and restaurants that choose not to rebuild because they weren’t insured or don’t want to do so now, knowing another storm could [wreak] havoc again.” Readers are invited to report storm impacts on projects and costs to ken.simonson@agc.org.
“The first year of new settlements reached from January through September of 2024 (3Q24) for union craft workers in the construction industry had an average increase of 4.7%, the same rate as 2023,” the Construction Labor Research Council reported on Tuesday. “From 2020 to 2023, increases rose sharply—by 1.9 percent[age points]—going from 2.8% to 4.7% in just three years. And even though inflation has subsided, union increases remain high because of a lag effect. That is, a strong majority of negotiated union agreements are three years in length, others are longer. Most settlements negotiated in 2024 were previously bargained in 2021 (typically during the summer months), before the surge in inflation. Thus, the impact of strong inflationary pressures that occurred between the effective and expiration dates of many contracts is now being reckoned with in bargaining sessions throughout the U.S….The mode (most common percentage) moved up to 4.1-4.5% from 3.6-4.0% in 2022. So far in 2024, a fourth of the settlements were at least 6.0%.” Among 15 crafts, pipefitters/plumbers had the largest increase, 6.3%. Eight crafts had a larger increase than in 2023. “All but two crafts averaged at least 4.0% in 3Q24 and six averaged at least 5.0%.”
Housing starts (units) in September dipped 0.5% from August and 0.7% year-over-year (y/y) at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, the Census Bureau reported today. Single-family starts rose 2.7% and 5.5%, respectively. Multifamily (five or more units) starts fell 4.5% for the month and 16% y/y. Residential permits declined 2.9% and 5.7%, respectively. Single-family permits rose 0.3% for the month but slipped 1.2% y/y. Multifamily permits plunged 11% and 17%, respectively. Multifamily units under construction declined for the 11th month in a row, by 3.5% and 17% y/y.
“Our research suggests that between April 1, 2024 and July 1, 2024, the national average increase in construction cost was 1.07% (4.28% annualized),” consultancy Rider Levett Bucknall reported on October 4. Among 12 cities surveyed, annual increases ranged from 6.7% in Chicago to 3.9% in Phoenix.
“Between August and December this year, we expect that U.S. utility-scale developers will add 24 GW of solar electricity generating capacity,” the Energy Information Administration posted on October 2. “In the final five months of 2024, we expect new U.S. solar electricity generating capacity will make up 63%, or nearly two-thirds, of all new electricity generating capacity to come online in the United States. Three states accounted for almost one-half of the utility-scale solar fleet in the United States during August 2024: California (21.0 GW [gigawatts]), Texas (18.8 GW), and Florida (9.7 GW).”
“Our proprietary 3Q24 transmission & distribution [T&D engineering and construction] survey garnered ~100 responses,” investment firm Stifel posted on October 10. “Main takeaways include: 1) notable sequential improvement in T&D activity in the quarter, 2) which appears to be in part driven by improved emergency restoration demand amid recent hurricane activity, and 3) relatively softer trends continue in gas distribution….By sub-sector, electric T&D saw notable improvement in 3Q24, while gas distribution remained softer….Importantly, the sequential improvement in overall project activity appears to be only partially explained by hurricanes.”
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